Wall Street.

Seriously, folks.  I’m buying up all the stock I can afford in case he wins, because whether you believe in him or not, he’s spent huge piles of cash ($600 million?) selling change. American consumers have a knack for believing marketing and advertising, no matter what.  The people who buy and sell stock on Wall Street - if there is one thing that they want, it’s change.

I predict that if Obama wins Tuesday, the Dow will go up 1500 points Wednesday, and another 1000 on Thursday.  If McCain wins - I bet it just stays flat.  Does anybody really believe McCain represents change, even his own advisors? Read the rest of this entry »

We are seeing an unprecedented period where large net companies are gobbling up smaller ones or merging with other big players.

There have really been three phases of the net, and I believe we are witnessing the fourth, which, in a few years, will lead to a fifth that will span a century or more.  Before I go into the fourth and fifth, let’s first briefly cover the first three:

1. 1980s & early 1990s: Invention and Discovery. Ethernet, email, and other key technologies were invented in the 70s, but it was in this time period when we first starting putting it together.
2. Mid 90s to early 2000: Build Up and Speculation. Once Wall Street caught up with the power of the net, and companies started seeing significant savings from networked applications, everyone wanted to get in early on this great new technology.  At the time, many thought it was a greater invention than practically any other.  Y2K spending also drove late century investment.
3. 2000 to 2003: Adjustment to Reality. Since Y2K didn’t end the world, the world woke up to the reality that we had other problems to solve, and that the profits weren’t really there.  To some degree, I think there was an over-adjustment, but it was very necessary.  There were a few great technologies invented in this time period, but generally it was a period in which paper millionaires became paperboys (and girls) again.

The new buzzword is “social networking” (actually that’s two!) and suddenly investment dollars are flowing that way, almost to the extent that it did in the second phase. It’s no surprise to me or anyone who’s paid attention to the growth of the Internet over the last 20 years - of course social networking is big!  That’s what the frickin’ Internet was (largely) created for! 

After years of observation, I believe that this is just a part of the thing that is the Internet.  There will always be a “latest thing,” but there is an important difference: now, the “latest thing” is just a normal part of the business.  It’s like any other business - new products come along, and either they survive the market or they don’t - but regardless, they get a lot of press up front.  So, no, the fourth stage isn’t about social networking.

The fourth stage I call the Cooling and Coagulation phase.  I call it this because I liken the metauniverse of the Internet to the creation of a new place, like our precious Earth or Moon.  The creation of cyberspace; whatever you want to call it, this thing that pervades our culture…it’s here to stay.  The corporations and civic leaders who shape our history, our safety, and our future, know this.  It’s becoming a part of our daily lives, and investors are simply claiming their flag on the moon like everyone else, with a serious eye for the future. One of the best ways to grow that stake is to simply combine your assets with another.

Read the rest of this entry »