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Cooling, Coagulation, and Beyond: the Five Phases of the Web

April27

We are seeing an unprecedented period where large net companies are gobbling up smaller ones or merging with other big players.

There have really been three phases of the net, and I believe we are witnessing the fourth, which, in a few years, will lead to a fifth that will span a century or more.  Before I go into the fourth and fifth, let’s first briefly cover the first three:

  1. 1980s & early 1990s: Invention and Discovery. Ethernet, email, and other key technologies were invented in the 70s, but it was in this time period when we first starting putting it together.
  2. Mid 90s to early 2000: Build Up and Speculation. Once Wall Street caught up with the power of the net, and companies started seeing significant savings from networked applications, everyone wanted to get in early on this great new technology.  At the time, many thought it was a greater invention than practically any other.  Y2K spending also drove late century investment.
  3. 2000 to 2003: Adjustment to Reality. Since Y2K didn’t end the world, the world woke up to the reality that we had other problems to solve, and that the profits weren’t really there.  To some degree, I think there was an over-adjustment, but it was very necessary.  There were a few great technologies invented in this time period, but generally it was a period in which paper millionaires became paperboys (and girls) again.

The new buzzword is “social networking” (actually that’s two!) and suddenly investment dollars are flowing that way, almost to the extent that it did in the second phase. It’s no surprise to me or anyone who’s paid attention to the growth of the Internet over the last 20 years - of course social networking is big!  That’s what the frickin’ Internet was (largely) created for! 

After years of observation, I believe that this is just a part of the thing that is the Internet.  There will always be a “latest thing,” but there is an important difference: now, the “latest thing” is just a normal part of the business.  It’s like any other business - new products come along, and either they survive the market or they don’t - but regardless, they get a lot of press up front.  So, no, the fourth stage isn’t about social networking.

The fourth stage I call the Cooling and Coagulation phase.  I call it this because I liken the metauniverse of the Internet to the creation of a new place, like our precious Earth or Moon.  The creation of cyberspace; whatever you want to call it, this thing that pervades our culture…it’s here to stay.  The corporations and civic leaders who shape our history, our safety, and our future, know this.  It’s becoming a part of our daily lives, and investors are simply claiming their flag on the moon like everyone else, with a serious eye for the future. One of the best ways to grow that stake is to simply combine your assets with another.

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The End of “Listeners”

April27

This article appeared in Inside Radio on April 27, 2008.

If there is one thing you can do today to survive the future of radio, stop thinking of your cume as listeners and think of them as users. With the arrival of PPM this will be even more apparent, because PPM is all about cume.

Why is radio so late to the New Media party? It’s astonishing to me that radio is so far behind. As a guy with 13+ years of experience in the web industry, I’ve seen so many industries adapt and even transform themselves. There are a lot of reasons, but some of the most obvious are:

1. Radio web site advertising is still largely “value add” instead of being a significant part of non spot development.
2. Fear that the web will take listeners away from the core asset, or hurt ratings.

Listeners are engaged only when the radio is on. Radio users connect with you in other ways, strengthening your brand and encouraging loyalty with each touch. They access your content whenever they want, however they want.

Many of our listeners - ahem! - users, return to our sites every day. Pictures, video, and more get posted on the web to supplement the on-air message. When the show is over, users go online and discuss it or pass it on. News junkies get timely text alerts, and hundreds of captive radio users stream our music station in their offices. The interesting thing about this is that new media, used effectively, propels users to listen to the radio more, not less.

Research has show again and again that web users are not particularly loyal. However, that changes when users are also engaged in broadcast media, particularly when there is additional, compelling content available there.

The Importance of Cume Applies to the Web, Too
Cume, when applied to the web, is called uniques or unique visitors. You may have heard about another web metric, the page view, which is the number of times a web page is delivered in a given amount of time, usually in a month. However, as web sites become more like applications, page views aren’t as important any more; in fact, in 2-3 years this metric will be practically irrelevant. Instead, it will be all about the size of your web audience (uniques), how much you know about them (database), and how well you serve them (return visits). Sound familiar?

Ad impressions are important, too, but as Google discovered some time ago - it’s not just about quantity, it’s about the context and quality of the referral.

It’s no secret that advertising is getting more personal. Targeted marketing works as well for consumers as it does for advertisers. If you engage your users outside of their cars and offices, you’ll get to know them better. The better you know them, the more you can help your advertisers sell to them, and the stronger your relationship with both will be.

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